Vinegar Syndrome Time-to-Onset Estimator

What these inputs mean

A-D strip. Sets Pint directly from the Table 3 PPM band and gives a floor estimate for D via titratable acidity. An A-D level is not a diagnosis of vinegar syndrome: the strip reads acetic acid in the air around the cel right now, while onset here is defined by structural damage, D reaching 0.5%. A high reading with low measured D means the acid is coming from somewhere other than this cel — the fix is the enclosure, not the artwork. How you test also decides what the reading means: sealed alone with one cel it reflects that cel; left in a binder or box with others it reflects the whole enclosure.

Production year. Only a way to estimate D when you have no lab value. It applies the handbook's baseline clock of 0.01%/yr under general storage (the 70°F / 40%RH IPI reference), so D ≈ 0.01% × age. That clock is linear — IPI's own assumption that the rate never changes — so treat it as a neutral prior about storage you cannot see, not a framework result.

Measured D. A lab-measured deacetylation value. It overrides the age and A-D estimates entirely and anchors the result at today, since a measured D already accounts for the aging so far. With D in hand the production year no longer drives the Cel Nexus figure — it only anchors the age-only Arrhenius benchmark it is plotted against.

Temperature and humidity. Temperature scales the intrinsic rate through the Arrhenius factor. Relative humidity enters separately as a first-order water-activity term, because deacetylation is a hydrolysis and needs moisture to proceed. Both act on the benchmark rate; neither changes this cel's state penalty, which cancels the environment out.

Leave on Moderate unless you have a reason not to.

Estimated onset window — this cel

45 – 50 yrs state-aware vs. age-only, remaining from today

Show the numbers behind the band
Remaining (Cel Nexus)—
Onset year—
Damage (D)0.05%
Acid (Pint)0.00 PPM
Relative penalty vs. a pristine cel×1.00
Damage budget already spent (D ÷ 0.5%)—

Arrhenius (IPI Baseline)

Pristine-cel benchmark: R = R0(T) · aw. D=0, Pint=0, no autocatalytic feedback. Calibrated to reproduce IPI's 50-year guideline exactly at 70°F / 40%RH.

50 yrs
total, production to onset, at this environment
Predicted onset (calendar year)—
Remaining, from today—
IPI reference (70°F/40%RH since production)—

Reading the band

Two readings of the same cel, both counted from today. Arrhenius knows only the calendar. Cel Nexus starts from the cel's measured state. Where they disagree is the useful part: if the state-aware marker sits later, this cel has aged more slowly than its years suggest.

Methodology & equations

IPI Baseline (benchmark). Arrhenius supplies the temperature dependence only; the water-activity factor aw = RH/100 is a separate first-order moisture term, since deacetylation is hydrolytic. A pristine cel's rate is R = R0(T) · aw with onset at D = 0.5%. R0 = 0.025 %/yr is the Intrinsic Thermal Velocity at the framework reference of 70°F / 40% RH (aw = 0.40): 0.025 × 0.40 = 0.010 %/yr → 0.5 / 0.010 = 50 yrs, reproducing the IPI 50-year guideline exactly. Temperature scales R0 by the Arrhenius factor exp[(−Ea/R)(1/T − 1/T_ref)].

Cel Nexus (relative penalty, Eq. 16). Comparing a degraded cel to the same cel pristine, the environmental terms (β, R0, aw) cancel, leaving a dimensionless state penalty: Relative Penalty = (1 + κ·D) · (1 + Φ·Pint). This cel's effective lifetime = Arrhenius lifetime ÷ penalty. Pristine (D=0, Pint=0) → ×1.00, so Cel Nexus equals IPI Baseline at the reference. The penalty depends only on the cel's state — accumulated damage D and internal vapor Pint — not on storage geometry or scavengers, and not on temperature or RH, which cancel in the ratio.

Scope: pre-autocatalytic only. Everything here models the induction phase, D < 0.5%. At or past the 0.5% brink the tool reports “at/past onset” rather than projecting a date, because post-brink degradation follows a different rate law. Ea = 105 kJ/mol (IPI/Adelstein induction-phase fit) sets the benchmark's temperature sensitivity; κ = 2.0 standard / 1.0 low / 4.0 heavy-paint; Φ = 0.5 PPM⁻¹.

Strip level vs. damage state. Pint (from the strip) and D are different quantities: Pint is free acid present in the enclosure now and is reversible — ventilate or scavenge and it falls. D is accumulated deacetylation and is not. That is why a high strip level on a cel with low measured D still returns healthy remaining life: the model treats the acid as an accelerant acting on the material, not as the damage itself. Onset is defined at D = 0.5%, never at a strip level.

Why the two markers diverge on the same cel. The age clock is linear at 0.01%/yr, which is IPI's assumption that the rate is constant for life. The framework's rate law is not constant: R = R0·aw·(1 + κD) rises as damage accumulates. The two agree exactly at D = 0 and separate from there. Seeding D from the linear clock is deliberate — it is the neutral prior for a cel whose storage history you do not know — and the gap between the markers is the framework's actual claim: once D is high, IPI's constant-rate figure is optimistic.

D is estimated as the larger of: (a) age × 0.01%/yr baseline clock, or (b) the AD strip's titratable-acidity band — unless you supply a measured value directly. Pint comes straight from the AD strip's PPM band (Table 3).