Estimates years remaining until vinegar syndrome onset (D reaches 0.5%) from your cel's current AD strip reading, structural damage state (D), age, and storage environment — compared against a textbook Arrhenius benchmark.
Sets Pint directly (Table 3 PPM band) and gives a floor estimate for D via titratable acidity.
Used to estimate D via the 0.01%/yr baseline clock if you don't have a measured value.
FTIR/titration value, if you have one. Overrides the age/AD estimate entirely.
Pristine-cel benchmark: temperature & RH only. D=0, Pint=0, no autocatalytic feedback. This is the "textbook" number, calibrated to reproduce the IPI's 50-year guideline exactly at 70°F/40%RH.
Uses this cel's actual D and current AD-strip-implied Pint, held constant since production. "Projected" applies the storage change below, starting today.
Project a storage change
Weak & Moderate assume full effectiveness through AD 1.0, then no credit from AD 1.5 on (real sorbents saturate; not modeled below that cliff). Strong stays at the idealized Perfect Sink regardless of AD.
Cel Nexus (this cel's real D and Pint) is always ≤ Basic Arrhenius (idealized D=0, Pint=0) at the same temperature/RH, since real damage and vapor only ever add risk. So the two models themselves form a natural low–high bracket.
Predicted onset window — this cel
dD/dt = R = R0(T) · H(D) · (1 + Φ·Pint), onset at D = 0.5%.
H(D) = (1 + κ·D) · aw | R0(70°F) = 0.025 %/yr, β = 10.0 PPM/%, Φ = 0.5 PPM⁻¹
Ea = 105 kJ/mol pre-brink (D<0.5%, IPI/Adelstein induction-phase fit), 70.7 kJ/mol post-brink (D≥0.5%, Curran et al. 2019 autocatalytic-regime fit).
D is estimated as the larger of: (a) age × 0.01%/yr baseline clock, or (b) the AD strip's titratable-acidity band — unless you supply a measured value directly. Pint comes straight from the AD strip's PPM band (Table 3), independent of enclosure resistance.
Storage-change projection scales Pint by scavenger × enclosure multipliers; it does not re-solve the R_tot mass balance (values for the intermediate enclosure tiers are engineering estimates, not framework-calibrated — the framework only anchors two points: R_tot=1.25yr scavenged/open, R_tot=8yr sealed sleeve+frame).