Cel Nexus · VS Risk Logic

VS Likelihood – Arrhenius + Microenvironment Modifiers

This tool converts your temperature and RH into a single likelihood score for vinegar-syndrome–driven risk, using an Arrhenius-style model for CTA hydrolysis plus a simple absolute humidity correction. In other words, it estimates how aggressively your environment is pushing a cel toward the wear-out regime of the bathtub curve. This becomes the “L” axis of your VS risk matrix, defined for a stable cel.

Baseline 70 °F / 50% RH, open room, no scavenger
Output Lbase from AH/T only, plus Leff after microenvironment correction factors

1. Single-environment likelihood

Start here to score one storage setup. Temperature and RH drive the base reaction rate; the modifiers let you nudge that up or down for the microenvironment. Condition / VS history is handled separately on the consequence side of your matrix.

Use the long-term average temperature for the cel (baseline reference is 70 °F).

Use the long-term average RH near the cel (baseline reference is 50% RH).

Captures how easy it is for vapor to clear the immediate microenvironment.

Only large, well-placed scavengers get a small credit; most real-world cases are neutral (1.0).

More coverage and stuck layers mean slower diffusion and more local acid recycling.

Match this to the consequence table in the risk framework: C answers “how bad is failure for this cel as it sits today?”

Modified VS likelihood 3
Neutral
Base AH/T L_base = 3 · Neutral
With storage setup L_eff = 3 · Neutral

Base AH/T likelihood band (Lbase) from T/RH only: 3 (Neutral).

With 70 °F and 50% RH, this setup is roughly comparable to a conventional “good room” baseline. You are not in immediate danger territory, but you are also not buying much extra life.

k_rel ≈ 1.00 → L_base = 3. Microenvironment factor M_total ≈ 1.00 → L_eff = 3.

Think of Lbase as the pure AH/T likelihood for a stable cel. The microenvironment correction factors (geometry, scavenger, paint coverage) gently nudge this up or down to an effective Leff, clamped to [1,5]. Condition / VS history is handled on the consequence side below.

2. Compare two storage setups

Use this to sanity-check two different environments side by side. The calculator re-runs the same Arrhenius + absolute humidity logic (without correction factors) for each case and shows which one pushes the cel closer to the wear-out region of the bathtub curve. These scores are in terms of Lbase.

Setup A

Example: current room or frame.

LVS,A (base) 3 Neutral

Setup B

Example: target microclimate or cold storage.

LVS,B (base) 2 Low

With the defaults, Setup B is gentler on the cel than Setup A. Lower temperature and lower absolute humidity both slow the hydrolysis clock.

3. L × C Risk Matrix & Tier Guidance ? Interpreting L × C – Present Risk vs. Future Risk

The L × C score represents current risk, not long-term preservation outlook. L (Likelihood) describes how aggressive the environment is – how quickly hydrolysis will progress under the present temperature and humidity. C (Consequence) describes the cel’s current physical condition and how vulnerable it is right now.

This means a cel can have a high L but low C and still show a low L × C score today. However, a high L guarantees that C will rise over time if storage conditions are not improved. Low current risk does not imply long-term safety.

Use the L × C matrix to understand today’s condition-based risk, and use the lifetime model to understand how quickly the cel will move into higher-C states under the same environment. When L is elevated, Tier 2 or Tier 1 storage is still recommended to prevent future condition drift.

This section combines your effective likelihood band Leff with the consequence score C to give an overall risk band (L × C). The highlighted cell shows where this cel sits on the matrix. Use the text summary to map that band back to the preservation tiers.

L \ C C = 1 C = 2 C = 3 C = 4 C = 5
L = 1 1 2 3 4 5
L = 2 2 4 6 8 10
L = 3 3 6 9 12 15
L = 4 4 8 12 16 20
L = 5 5 10 15 20 25

Current setting: Leff = 3, C = 1 → L × C = 3.

With a neutral environment (L = 3) and cosmetic-only damage (C = 1), overall risk is low. A Tier 3 storage approach is typically adequate; Tier 2 is optional insurance.

As a rough guide: very low scores (1–4) align with Tier 3+ baselines, mid scores (5–12) justify aiming for Tier 2 or better, and high scores (≥16) point toward Tier 1 strategies or active reset. See the main tier table for full definitions.

4. Methodology & scoring logic

How this tool thinks:

  1. Convert your T/RH into a relative rate multiplier k_rel versus a 70 °F / 50% RH baseline, using Arrhenius plus an absolute humidity term.
  2. Map that rate into a 1–5 base band L_base (neutral room ≈ 3, strongly protective → 1, aggressively damaging → 5). The likelihood table below applies to this base mapping only.
  3. Apply small, bounded microenvironment correction factors (storage geometry, scavenger, paint coverage) to get an effective score L_eff, clamped to [1,5]. Condition / VS history is intentionally kept separate for consequence/state.
Important: Lbase answers “how hard is this AH/T environment pushing a stable cel toward VS?” Leff then answers “does this specific microenvironment configuration make things meaningfully better or worse?” Your matrix’s consequence axis (C) captures how bad failure would be given the cel’s current state.
Correction factors at a glance:
Each dropdown contributes a dimensionless multiplier:
  • Storage geometry/volume: M_storage ∈ {1.0, 1.1, 1.25, 1.4} — the “sealed” penalty applies only when there isn’t a strong scavenger inside; when a big scavenger is present, the tool cancels that penalty.
  • Scavenger / MicroChamber / zeolite: M_scav ∈ {1.0, 0.95, 0.9}
  • Paint coverage / trapped layers: M_geom ∈ {1.0, 1.1, 1.25, 1.4}
These are combined into a single microenvironment factor M_total = M_storage × M_scav × M_geom, and the effective likelihood band is:
L_eff = clamp( round(L_base × M_total), 1, 5 ).
In practice, M_total usually sits near 1.0, so you move at most one band up or down: a tight, poorly ventilated stack with no scavenger can push a neutral AH/T band into “High,” while an oversized scavenger in a well-designed enclosure can pull a marginal AH/T band back toward “Neutral.”

Base likelihood scale (Lbase) at a glance

Lbase Band k_rel range (vs 70 °F / 50% RH) Interpretation (AH/T only, before correction factors)
1 Very low k_rel < 0.5 AH/T environment is strongly protective. VS progression is much slower than the baseline 40–50 year horizon.
2 Low 0.5 ≤ k_rel < 0.9 Better than a neutral room. The hydrolysis clock is clearly slowed, but VS is still possible over very long spans.
3 Neutral 0.9 ≤ k_rel ≤ 1.1 Comparable to 70 °F / 50% RH storage. A “good room” but not truly life-extending.
4 High 1.1 < k_rel < ~3.3 Hydrolysis is running faster than baseline. VS onset within a collector-relevant horizon (30–50 years) is likely.
5 Very high k_rel ≳ 3.3 Roughly equivalent to a < 15 year horizon. The cel is being pushed quickly into the wear-out region; aggressive mitigation is justified.